Almanac of law. Issue 17 (2026), pages 176–181.

DOI: 10.33663/2524-017X-2026-17-176-181

Turlova Yu. А., Ternavska A. A.
Analysis of crime dynamics in the field of radioecological safety

The article carries out a comprehensive criminological analysis of crime in the field of radioecological safety through the prism of improving analytical and information support for combating relevant criminal offenses. It is substantiated that effective criminal law and preventive policy in this area is impossible without the formation of a holistic information model based on the principles of reliability, systematicity, verifiability and interdepartmental integration of data. The need to transition from formal statistical accounting to in-depth analysis of the structure, intensity, territorial differentiation and determinants of the studied category of crimes is emphasized. The methodological principles of studying the dynamics of criminal offenses in the field of radioecological safety using statistical analysis, in particular the use of absolute and relative indicators (growth rates, increments, dynamics coefficients) are determined. Based on official statistical reports for 2002–2025, it was established that the total number of recorded criminal offenses of this category is 811, and the average annual figure is 34 offenses, which indicates a relatively low level of their formal recording and, at the same time, the presence of a latent component.

The construction of a polynomial trend model with a coefficient of determination R² = 0.7054 made it possible to distinguish four wave-like periods of crime development: the initial stage of fluctuations (2002–2005), the period of growth and expansion of criminalization (2006–2013), the phase of relative stabilization (2014–2021) and the stage of decreasing recorded indicators in conditions of a war (2022–2025). The impact of criminal justice reforms, the introduction of the Unified Register of Pre-Trial Investigations, as well as the criminalization of new offenses (in particular, Articles 265¹ and 267¹ of the Criminal Code of Ukraine) on the change in statistical parameters is analyzed.

Special attention is paid to the military-contextual dimension of radioecological crime, which is associated with increased risks for nuclear and radiation safety in conditions of armed conflict. It is proven that the decrease in official indicators in 2022–2025 does not indicate an actual decrease in criminal activity, but is largely due to a change in the functional load of criminal justice bodies and the reorientation of their activities to documenting war crimes.

A conclusion is drawn about the stability and specific latency of crime in the field of radioecological safety, which requires further improvement of methods of criminological measurement, forecasting and scientific support of law enforcement practice.

Keywords: radioecological safety, crime, criminological indicators, criminal offenses, dynamics, level, statistical analysis.

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Дата першого надходження рукопису до видання: 06.03.2026
Дата прийнятого до друку рукопису після рецензування: 09.04.2026
Дата публікації: 30.04.2026